The indispensable Nate Silver of www.fivethirtyeight.com takes on some questions about recent polls and supposed shifts in voter ID. Since the Republican National Convention, there has been a noticeable bounce in both overall support for John McCain at the nationwide and state level, as well as an increase in voter ID for Republicans. The sudden increase in those identifying themselves as Republicans has led some to doubt the accuracy of recent polls showing a McCain edge. One possible explanation for the spike in GOP responders is simply response bias — a greater willingness at this point to answer polls because they feel more excited about their ticket. In any case, Silver answers some questions about voter ID issues today.

It’s important to remember the unreliability of polling data, especially with so much time left in the campaign. The likelihood is that McCain is, in fact, doing better than two weeks ago. If the election were held today, there’s almost a 50% shot he would win. But with four debates and almost two months of campaigning left, anything can happen. In addition, what the Obama campaign is really looking for is a path to 270 electoral votes, not a lead in the national polls. If Obama can hold on to the states that Kerry won and win any three of the following six: New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio — he will reach the needed 270.

I’m thinking of writing a piece in the GW Hatchet soon about the Vice Presidential candidates from both parties, so I don’t want to put too much of my ideas out here. Instead I’ll just aggregate some of the strengths and weaknesses that Sarah Palin brings to the Republican ticket (and as evidenced by the title, there are plenty the latter):

Sarah Palin’s selection, in my view, completely and utterly decimates John McCain’s only credible arguments for his election. All summer we’ve been told that experience and competence trump hope and change, that the world was too dangerous and volatile for a 47 year old career politician to handle, and that only a steady and tested hand can guide us through global turmoil and economic distress. That was the case for John McCain, and it was compelling enough to keep the election close despite the many factors benefiting Democrats this year. All of that has been thrown out the window by this pick.

By catapulting a 2 year governor of a state with a population 1/4 the size of Brooklyn to running mate status, McCain has drastically undermined his message and erased his sole advantage in this race. Weren’t we supposed to vote for McCain because of his superior experience and understanding of foreign affairs? Apparently his potential Vice President doesn’t need any of those qualifications, even though McCain himself said he wanted a running mate that would reinforce his strengths. And voters aren’t blind to the fact that the 72 year old cancer survivor may not make it through 4 or 8 years, and certainly aren’t hot on the idea of a Miss Alaska runner up filling in for him. A Presidential death rattles morale and shakes a nation’s confidence; think of Kennedy or the Reagan assassination attempt. Fortunately, eminently qualified Vice Presidents stood ready to take the helm and shepherd a shocked nation, and one of them did (who hasn’t seen the image of LBJ’s inauguration aboard Air Force One?). If the unthinkable happened to President McCain, I’m not sure how or even if a moose-eating former beauty queen could handle that responsibility. Contrast that with Obama, who wisely selected a capable and reassuring Washington hand who could assume power at a moment’s notice. A running mate should shore up a candidate’s weaknesses, but not to the point where it makes voters aware of the candidate’s biggest flaws, in this case, McCain’s age and apparent lack of anything resembling judgment.

And where was the vetting team on this one? For someone McCain admits he only met once, you’d have thought they would maybe have at least Googled Sarah Palin’s name. The Republicans are lucky that a hurricane kept most of this out of the press, but pretty soon we’ll see the deluge of skeletons pouring out of Palin’s closet. From Troopergate to her involvement in indicted Sen. Ted Stevens’ 527 group, there’s a lot about Palin that we don’t know. And though we can’t rely on the media to tell us everything, the candidate’s historic position of the first female Republican running mate guarantees there will be a lot of extra scrutiny (just like for Obama in the primaries).

Oh, about the strengths. She gets the base behind McCain, because she hates things like a woman’s right to choose and providing social programs to those in need. That’s great, really. I’m not sure if the McCain campaign realized Republicans aren’t nearly as strong a group as they used to be (down to 32% of the electorate from 38% in 2004), so if he wants to let the independents shift toward Obama, who actually picked a competent running mate, that’s cool with me.

Democrats would do well to keep the pressure on Palin up until the election, relentlessly demanding answers about the Governor’s public life and history. If we “needed to know” all about Obama, who has more than twice as many years experience than Palin, then we certainly deserve to hear about every little detail of Palin’s astoundingly short political career. Biden should draw the contrasts clearly and fairly during the Vice Presidential debate, making sure voters realize she’s inexperienced not because she’s a woman (we don’t want another Rick Lazio moment), but because she has no record on anything except drilling in ANWR.

Thank you John McCain, for showing us all just how wrong we’ve been for assuming an experienced politician would make a reasonable running mate decision. Thank you for strengthening Obama’s argument that you just don’t get it when it comes to issues Americans face every day. Thank you for proving you have no idea what Hillary supporters want in a candidate (here’s a hint, it’s not a woman, it’s women’s rights). And thank you for hatefully presuming that Americans are ignorant, shallow, and easily fooled by illusions of change like Sarah Palin. In two months, you’ll see just how wrong you are, Senator.

For all the Clintonites out there that have held onto a faded hope that their woman will become the Vice President of the United States, this will perhaps help you ease into the idea of seeing so many “Obama-Biden” signs in the months ahead. You guys look like a child on Christmas morning finding socks under the tree.
Hillary Clinton has always been the wrong choice for Obama’s VP spot.

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The texts are out, the speech is done, and now it’s time to take a good hard look at our next Vice President- Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware. Although I’ll admit I didn’t consider Biden the best possibility, after seeing the candidates together in front of the Illinois Statehouse I realize Obama has indeed made a strong and reassuring choice. Here’s why…

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A full post on the pros and cons of this admittedly predictable pick tomorrow morning, when I’m not dead tired. Until then, get hyped about Sen. Joe Biden, the next Vice President of the United States!!

I’m calling it now- based on what I’ve been hearing all day, tomorrow Obama will announce the next Vice President of the United States: Indiana Senator Evan Bayh. Whether choosing a pro-war unknown Midwesterner with unknown political skill will prove beneficial to Obama remains to be seen. Hell, even the running mate choice remains to be seen. Don’t get mad though, the longer Obama waits the more cell phone numbers he gets, and these are by and large young voters who we will need to remind to vote come November 4.

Just when we thought the next big campaign news would break with a text from 62262, out comes the unstoppable gaffe-machine that is John McCain. You know the story: a Politico reporter asked him a simple enough question- how many houses he owns- and McCain stumbly avoided giving an answer and ultimately referred the reporter to his staff. While some are inevitably going to see this as a non-issue and downplay its significance, the reactions of the Obama campaign and the media prove this story is huge and if played right could provide Obama the populist legs he needs to win this election.

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Up until now, the prevailing contention among politicos and talking heads was that Obama’s running mate should be a “safe” pick: one who wouldn’t alienate anybody and assuage some Democrats’ fears regarding Obama’s supposed inexperience. But with the characteristics of this presidential campaign clearly changing, and the once-comfortable Obama lead transforming into a dead heat, such an argument no longer holds water. It’s increasingly clear that the McCain campaign can only win by relentlessly barraging Obama with attack ads, questioning his experience and painting him as too unknown to be trusted with the presidency. Against this backdrop, Obama can neutralize this claims and rebound in the polls by tapping the tenacious and eminently capable Hillary Clinton for the running mate spot.

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One of the things we’re going to use this blog for is providing commentary and opinions on the constantly changing election campaign. With the VP announcements and nominating conventions looming, I think this is as good a time as any to take stock of the campaign thus far.

For months now, the American people have been deluged with polls showing a modest but consistent Obama edge. The electorate’s priorities remained remarkably stable, with a economic fears giving Democrats an invaluable advantage over their spendthrift colleagues on the other side of the aisle. With the dog days of summer upon us, the public’s attention turned to diversions like the Olympics, and in time many of us became complacent and content with the fragile lead our candidates enjoyed.

All of that changed as Russian tanks and aircraft commenced their barrage of neighboring Georgia. The often underestimated McCain campaign deftly seized on this opportunity to showcase their candidate’s perceived knowledge of foreign policy. At the same time, ads criticizing Obama for his celebrity-like following blared out of televisions nationwide. The conservative puppet Jerome Corsi issued another inaccurate and slanderous expose of Obama’s past, which promptly skyrocketed to bestseller status. Where was the Obama campaign’s political mastery during all of this? On vacation in Hawaii.

The last straw perhaps was Pastor Rick Warren’s faith forum at the Saddleback Megachurch, where Obama, fresh off the beach, appeared overly nuanced and unable to answer Warren’s questions with the same pointedness that characterized McCain’s replies. Today polls show all of these events have eroded Obama’s once dependable lead, making the race a virtual tie.

Political minds, like the ones who read this page, tend to fret over news like this. They see the decline in Obama’s numbers and immediately begin second-guessing their nominee’s abilities, skills, and even intelligence. Many wonder “how could the same Obama who executed arguably the largest upset in Democratic primary history now be tied with a delusional, trigger happy, out of touch conservative sellout?” For those of you out there who share these worries, I want you to remember a few things.

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