I’m going to preface this by saying I’m not one of those people who think endorsements are irrelevant. Most people tend to think they don’t matter, and to be fair a lot of them don’t, but this year has proven that the right person in your corner can work wonders for your campaign (I’m looking at you, Oprah). With this in mind, today’s endorsement by Colin Powell of Barack Obama over John McCain is huge.
The people have spoken resoundingly, and Barack Obama won the third presidential debate — meaning he has won all of them now. By a 2-to-1 margin or greater in multiple polls, viewers thought Obama bested John McCain. He scored much higher than McCain on both personal attributes (70-22% on likeability, according to CNN) and on the issues (59-35% on the economy, also from CNN). And yet the total and utter disconnect of the punditocracy from voters is astounding. John King of CNN questioned his station’s own poll results on air because he and so many other pundits were convinced that this was McCain’s “strongest performance” to date. Maybe so, but the media norm of faux two-sidedness and trying to keep elections close is getting a little old. I don’t see any other explanation for the fact that Mark Halperin of TIME gave John McCain an A- overall and a B+ on style points.
Boy, what a difference opinion polls make on morale. John McCain is sliding, and his followers are angry. Now that McCain needs to play catch-up, he’s pulling out the smears and avoiding economic issues. After his running mate said that Obama was “palling around with” former Weathermen militant Bill Ayers, it set a dangerous course for his campaign. With McCain, Palin, all their surrogates, and Fox News now telling conservatives that Obama is a “pal” of Ayers, the recipients are terrified and outraged that their candidate is losing to a terrorist sympathizer. Perhaps that explains this unpleasant moment.
I really hate sounding hyperbolic in these posts, but I don’t think I’m exaggerating when I say that McCain’s chances at the White House rested on the outcome of this debate. After conceding the foreign policy debate to Obama (widely considered his strength), everybody looked to the town hall format as one more chance for McCain to uplift his sagging poll numbers. After all, he’s good at town hall forums, right?
Not so much. Yet again, millions of Americans witnessed a compassionate, collected Obama juxtaposed with the same vindictive, backbiting McCain pacing nervously in the background. When answering questions McCain frequently missed his opportunities to shine and all too often descended into bitterness, frequently flubbing jokes and inexplicably launching personal attacks on Obama, even going so far as to call him “that one” and accompany it with a prying fingerpoint across the stage. By contrast, Obama’s answers were well thought out and served him well, as yet again the differences in mannerisms between the candidates worked to his advantage. Not to mention Obama didn’t strangly pace about the stage and fiddle with his notes, unlike McCain, who apparently can’t sit still for more than 5 minutes while his opponent speaks. This must be the town hall equivalent of not looking at your rival when he is speaking to you.
Honestly, at the end I wasn’t convinced anyone really “won” the debate. But with the town hall format in McCain’s supposed favor, the night was once again his to lose. And lose it he did. Sure, he had more to say about the economy, but a draw at best was not what McCain needed. Once again, he blew it. And with the economy front-and-center in the next debate and the media narrative on McCain/Palin changing from “A Team of Mavericks” to “A Team of Nutjobs”, he’s running out of time to pull this one out.
Ultimately it doesn’t matter what I think of the debate; CNN, CBS, and even FOX News focus groups of undecided voters all declared Obama the winner by considerable margins and thought that he provided more compelling cases on everything from Iraq to healthcare to the all important economy. Wow, I guess even FOX can be right sometimes.
I’m going to open this up to reader discussion, but I personally think Obama handily defeated McCain in last Friday’s debate. Going into the event, the media narrative was that Obama would probably lose the night, helpless against McCain’s foreign affairs “expertise”. In my view the exact opposite transpired. Ironically, and through his own doing, McCain came into the debate beaten and broken with no bailout deal and consequently little to no debate prep time. Obama, on the other hand, calmly and masterfully articulated his foreign policy positions, making sure McCain’s attempts to mischaracterize them were unsuccessful. Obama needed to look presidential and credible on this issue, and he did. Don’t take my word for it- look at numerous post-debate polls and the real-time surveys networks like CNN took during the debate and you’ll see that Obama outscored McCain handily, especially with respect to independent viewers who widely considered Obama the clear victor. Ladies and gentlemen, we won on McCain’s strong suit, partially because of McCain’s own doing but mostly because we have a great nominee.
I invite readers to share their thoughts about Friday’s debate, as well as their expectations of the upcoming Biden/Palin “debate”.
Sarah Palin had her second major interview with the media, this one spread over two days and conducted by Katie Couric. It’s embarrassing. Really, truly embarrassing. Palin just does not know what she’s talking about. I’m fairly confident that most readers of the Blue Line could answer better than Palin did vis-a-vis why an increased U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan might reduce insurgent activity there:
“Because we can’t afford to lose in Afghanistan, as we cannot afford to lose in Iraq, either, these central fronts on the war on terror.”
Well put! We can’t afford to lose in Afghanistan or Iraq, thus we won’t. I love the simplicity of international relations these days! We also can’t afford a $700 billion federal bailout of bad debt, thus we won’t try to create a bailout package that would . . . never mind. Let’s get some more insight from Ms. Palin, this time on whether the Pakistani government is protecting the Taliban and al Qaeda:
I was tempted to avoid writing a post on this whole McCain won’t debate nonsense and just hoping everything would blow over today, but as evidenced by the “BREAKDOWN” lede on Drudge Report, clearly this bailout business will not be resolved in time for tomorrow night’s debate. This puts McCain in a considerable bind; worse yet one of his own construction. Basically, the only 2 variables are whether or not a deal is reached and how McCain responds with respect to the debate. Let’s examine some of the possible scenarios that may unfold in the next 24 hours (that is, between now and the scheduled beginning of the debate:
As promised, I finally wrote an article in the Hatchet, and today it finally got published. It is a response to my conservative friend Andrew who claims that Sarah Palin’s presence on the ticket is infact a good thing. Naturally, it was my job to refute that- let me know how I did!
The article is reproduced below:
Last Thursday, my friend Andrew Clark wrote a column detailing the effects Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin could have on the presidential race (”Picking apart Palin, McCain’s wild-card VP,” p. 4). While he did note some vulnerabilities, for the most part his piece extolled Palin’s virtues as a true conservative, a fresh face and a compelling choice for middle America. I know people will agree when I say these claims couldn’t be farther from the truth.
The indispensable Nate Silver of www.fivethirtyeight.com takes on some questions about recent polls and supposed shifts in voter ID. Since the Republican National Convention, there has been a noticeable bounce in both overall support for John McCain at the nationwide and state level, as well as an increase in voter ID for Republicans. The sudden increase in those identifying themselves as Republicans has led some to doubt the accuracy of recent polls showing a McCain edge. One possible explanation for the spike in GOP responders is simply response bias — a greater willingness at this point to answer polls because they feel more excited about their ticket. In any case, Silver answers some questions about voter ID issues today.
It’s important to remember the unreliability of polling data, especially with so much time left in the campaign. The likelihood is that McCain is, in fact, doing better than two weeks ago. If the election were held today, there’s almost a 50% shot he would win. But with four debates and almost two months of campaigning left, anything can happen. In addition, what the Obama campaign is really looking for is a path to 270 electoral votes, not a lead in the national polls. If Obama can hold on to the states that Kerry won and win any three of the following six: New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio — he will reach the needed 270.
I’m thinking of writing a piece in the GW Hatchet soon about the Vice Presidential candidates from both parties, so I don’t want to put too much of my ideas out here. Instead I’ll just aggregate some of the strengths and weaknesses that Sarah Palin brings to the Republican ticket (and as evidenced by the title, there are plenty the latter):
Sarah Palin’s selection, in my view, completely and utterly decimates John McCain’s only credible arguments for his election. All summer we’ve been told that experience and competence trump hope and change, that the world was too dangerous and volatile for a 47 year old career politician to handle, and that only a steady and tested hand can guide us through global turmoil and economic distress. That was the case for John McCain, and it was compelling enough to keep the election close despite the many factors benefiting Democrats this year. All of that has been thrown out the window by this pick.
By catapulting a 2 year governor of a state with a population 1/4 the size of Brooklyn to running mate status, McCain has drastically undermined his message and erased his sole advantage in this race. Weren’t we supposed to vote for McCain because of his superior experience and understanding of foreign affairs? Apparently his potential Vice President doesn’t need any of those qualifications, even though McCain himself said he wanted a running mate that would reinforce his strengths. And voters aren’t blind to the fact that the 72 year old cancer survivor may not make it through 4 or 8 years, and certainly aren’t hot on the idea of a Miss Alaska runner up filling in for him. A Presidential death rattles morale and shakes a nation’s confidence; think of Kennedy or the Reagan assassination attempt. Fortunately, eminently qualified Vice Presidents stood ready to take the helm and shepherd a shocked nation, and one of them did (who hasn’t seen the image of LBJ’s inauguration aboard Air Force One?). If the unthinkable happened to President McCain, I’m not sure how or even if a moose-eating former beauty queen could handle that responsibility. Contrast that with Obama, who wisely selected a capable and reassuring Washington hand who could assume power at a moment’s notice. A running mate should shore up a candidate’s weaknesses, but not to the point where it makes voters aware of the candidate’s biggest flaws, in this case, McCain’s age and apparent lack of anything resembling judgment.
And where was the vetting team on this one? For someone McCain admits he only met once, you’d have thought they would maybe have at least Googled Sarah Palin’s name. The Republicans are lucky that a hurricane kept most of this out of the press, but pretty soon we’ll see the deluge of skeletons pouring out of Palin’s closet. From Troopergate to her involvement in indicted Sen. Ted Stevens’ 527 group, there’s a lot about Palin that we don’t know. And though we can’t rely on the media to tell us everything, the candidate’s historic position of the first female Republican running mate guarantees there will be a lot of extra scrutiny (just like for Obama in the primaries).
Oh, about the strengths. She gets the base behind McCain, because she hates things like a woman’s right to choose and providing social programs to those in need. That’s great, really. I’m not sure if the McCain campaign realized Republicans aren’t nearly as strong a group as they used to be (down to 32% of the electorate from 38% in 2004), so if he wants to let the independents shift toward Obama, who actually picked a competent running mate, that’s cool with me.
Democrats would do well to keep the pressure on Palin up until the election, relentlessly demanding answers about the Governor’s public life and history. If we “needed to know” all about Obama, who has more than twice as many years experience than Palin, then we certainly deserve to hear about every little detail of Palin’s astoundingly short political career. Biden should draw the contrasts clearly and fairly during the Vice Presidential debate, making sure voters realize she’s inexperienced not because she’s a woman (we don’t want another Rick Lazio moment), but because she has no record on anything except drilling in ANWR.
Thank you John McCain, for showing us all just how wrong we’ve been for assuming an experienced politician would make a reasonable running mate decision. Thank you for strengthening Obama’s argument that you just don’t get it when it comes to issues Americans face every day. Thank you for proving you have no idea what Hillary supporters want in a candidate (here’s a hint, it’s not a woman, it’s women’s rights). And thank you for hatefully presuming that Americans are ignorant, shallow, and easily fooled by illusions of change like Sarah Palin. In two months, you’ll see just how wrong you are, Senator.