Down to its final days, the race for New Jersey Governor has become far more dynamic than almost anyone expected. With unpopular Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine facing off against Chris Christie, a law-and-order Republican claiming to have the guts to shake things up in Trenton, the outcome seemed a foregone conclusion as recently as August. After over a decade of marginalization, it seemed that this would finally be the year Republicans would take back the Governor’s mansion.

Many observers, myself included, warned our conservative brethren of overconfidence, reminding them that Republicans typically look competitive in summer polling only to suddenly lose their luster with New Jersey’s voters around Labor Day. Indeed, it seems that this prediction has yet again come to pass.

Christie’s collapse, though particularly breathtaking this year, is nothing new. Neither is Corzine’s stagnant support, a reflection of his profound unpopularity. What is new, especially by Garden State standards, is that yellow regression line traversing the low double digits. That, my friends, is Chris Daggett. (more…)

Over the past few months, I’m sure you’ve endured your fair dose of Republican salivation over deep blue New Jersey’s uncharacteristically close gubernatorial election. I’m sure you’ve heard people who have insisted that Gov. Jon Corzine’s unremarkable first term will cost him a second one, that GOP challenger Chris Christie will milk the recent corruption scandal to shore up his corruption credentials, and that Corzine’s millions won’t be enough to quash the mounting discontent in the Garden State. Indeed, Christie seems to be enjoying a comfortable leadin most reputable polls. But are all signs portending a Republican win, or will Jonny find a way to pull it out? I wholeheartedly believe that Corzine will secure another four years in Trenton, and I base that on three factors: the demographic nature of the state, Corzine’s improving strategy, and Christie’s mounting problems.

(more…)

I recently became a supporter of NJ Governor Jon Corzine on Facebook, much to the chagrin of my conservative buddy Willard, who sent me a predictably harsh message:

“Really, you’re a fan of 50% of your income going to taxes? You’re a fan of people leaving your state in droves due to poor management? You’re a fan of the government refusing to cut even one public sector job, instead raising taxes on people who are already out of work? Seriously Matt, bad choice here….”

To be fair, Willard’s arguments are well-founded and shared by many people here in my state. I’m not going to dispute them, but I think it’s important to understand a few things about gubernatorial candidates in the Garden State especially if you ultimately have to vote for one like I do:

In short, they almost invariably suck, whether they be Democrats or Republicans. And they follow a very strict formula: the Democrat wants to help “families” by maintaining social programs like public sector jobs and assistance, and the Republican wants to cut “wasteful spending” by downsizing those very same programs. It’s been like that as long as I can remember, so at least for the past 3 or 4 races.

Inevitably the campaign season revolves around fiscal issues, since the state is unquestionably socially liberal. The Republicans usually understand this and nominate socially liberal but fiscally conservative candidates, like our most recent Republican governor Christie Whitman and the current frontrunner Chris Christie. There is very little that is objectionable about these candidates on the surface, at least if you’re an independent who isn’t immediately alienated by the (R) by their names. In many ways they resemble the Reagan Republicans that predominated before neoconservatives ruined the Republican brand (thanks, Dubya!) The Republican field is down to a Bush appointee (Christie) and an uber-conservative bigoted nutcase (Steve Lonegan). Only Christie has a shot at beating Corzine, because he fits the acceptable Republican model I’ve outlined above. So he’s the one I’ll focus my analysis on.

The Democratic candidates, who without exception are socially and fiscally rather liberal, almost invariably win these elections, mostly because of the state’s favorable partisan makeup but also because the electorate tends to appreciate their promises to help the middle class through programs and social services. Only when the circumstances are particularly dire (like they are now) does the Republican argument have some sway and voters begin to view these efforts as fiscally irresponsible. They see the high taxes required to fund them as exorbitant and revolt by electing a Republican; the last time this happened was in 1993, when “it’s the economy, stupid” seemed to help Whitman more than the Democratic incumbent, Jim Florio, who to this day is remembered as a big time tax raiser.

When he was elected in 2005, Corzine promised to use his business experience to trim the budget deficit. He hasn’t done anything like that; in fact the state is worse off than when he first took office. The spending cuts he has made have come at the expense of almost universally appreciated programs like education, which even Republicans wouldn’t dare tamper with. Despite this, I will almost invariably vote for him in November, and here’s the reason why (it’s short I promise):

My fortunes are tied to the same programs and services that Christie threatens to cut. My father has worked for NJ Transit (our state’s public transportation agency with a gubernatorial appointee as its Executive Director) for almost 2 decades, and this summer I will return for another year at their internship program. For all their faults, Democratic governors like Corzine realize that certain things shouldn’t be messed with, and haven’t threatened these essential services. Christie on the other hand seems eager to take a chainsaw to the budget rather than a scalpel, and thus could threaten not only my own livelihood but that of the millions who depend on public transit to get to work. And that’s the only reason I’m voting for Corzine. Am I motivated by self-interest? Sure. But if your vote isn’t at least partially determined by what’s best for you, you’re an idiot. Stay home.

I have no doubt that Christie would do a decent job, and if he wins he might even force the Democrats to become more fiscally disciplined, assuming the Democratic legislature allows him to accomplish anything he wants to do. At this time I don’t trust the Republicans to be motivated by anything other than vengeance, and thus cannot vote for Christie in good conscience. We’ll see if they get a chance to prove me wrong, but right now I think they’ll just end up proving me right.