Down to its final days, the race for New Jersey Governor has become far more dynamic than almost anyone expected. With unpopular Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine facing off against Chris Christie, a law-and-order Republican claiming to have the guts to shake things up in Trenton, the outcome seemed a foregone conclusion as recently as August. After over a decade of marginalization, it seemed that this would finally be the year Republicans would take back the Governor’s mansion.

Many observers, myself included, warned our conservative brethren of overconfidence, reminding them that Republicans typically look competitive in summer polling only to suddenly lose their luster with New Jersey’s voters around Labor Day. Indeed, it seems that this prediction has yet again come to pass.

Christie’s collapse, though particularly breathtaking this year, is nothing new. Neither is Corzine’s stagnant support, a reflection of his profound unpopularity. What is new, especially by Garden State standards, is that yellow regression line traversing the low double digits. That, my friends, is Chris Daggett. (more…)

Over the past few months, I’m sure you’ve endured your fair dose of Republican salivation over deep blue New Jersey’s uncharacteristically close gubernatorial election. I’m sure you’ve heard people who have insisted that Gov. Jon Corzine’s unremarkable first term will cost him a second one, that GOP challenger Chris Christie will milk the recent corruption scandal to shore up his corruption credentials, and that Corzine’s millions won’t be enough to quash the mounting discontent in the Garden State. Indeed, Christie seems to be enjoying a comfortable leadin most reputable polls. But are all signs portending a Republican win, or will Jonny find a way to pull it out? I wholeheartedly believe that Corzine will secure another four years in Trenton, and I base that on three factors: the demographic nature of the state, Corzine’s improving strategy, and Christie’s mounting problems.

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