Boy, what a difference opinion polls make on morale. John McCain is sliding, and his followers are angry. Now that McCain needs to play catch-up, he’s pulling out the smears and avoiding economic issues. After his running mate said that Obama was “palling around with” former Weathermen militant Bill Ayers, it set a dangerous course for his campaign. With McCain, Palin, all their surrogates, and Fox News now telling conservatives that Obama is a “pal” of Ayers, the recipients are terrified and outraged that their candidate is losing to a terrorist sympathizer. Perhaps that explains this unpleasant moment.

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Sarah Palin had her second major interview with the media, this one spread over two days and conducted by Katie Couric. It’s embarrassing. Really, truly embarrassing. Palin just does not know what she’s talking about. I’m fairly confident that most readers of the Blue Line could answer better than Palin did vis-a-vis why an increased U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan might reduce insurgent activity there:

“Because we can’t afford to lose in Afghanistan, as we cannot afford to lose in Iraq, either, these central fronts on the war on terror.”

Well put! We can’t afford to lose in Afghanistan or Iraq, thus we won’t. I love the simplicity of international relations these days! We also can’t afford a $700 billion federal bailout of bad debt, thus we won’t try to create a bailout package that would . . . never mind. Let’s get some more insight from Ms. Palin, this time on whether the Pakistani government is protecting the Taliban and al Qaeda:

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The indispensable Nate Silver of www.fivethirtyeight.com takes on some questions about recent polls and supposed shifts in voter ID. Since the Republican National Convention, there has been a noticeable bounce in both overall support for John McCain at the nationwide and state level, as well as an increase in voter ID for Republicans. The sudden increase in those identifying themselves as Republicans has led some to doubt the accuracy of recent polls showing a McCain edge. One possible explanation for the spike in GOP responders is simply response bias — a greater willingness at this point to answer polls because they feel more excited about their ticket. In any case, Silver answers some questions about voter ID issues today.

It’s important to remember the unreliability of polling data, especially with so much time left in the campaign. The likelihood is that McCain is, in fact, doing better than two weeks ago. If the election were held today, there’s almost a 50% shot he would win. But with four debates and almost two months of campaigning left, anything can happen. In addition, what the Obama campaign is really looking for is a path to 270 electoral votes, not a lead in the national polls. If Obama can hold on to the states that Kerry won and win any three of the following six: New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio — he will reach the needed 270.

One of the things we’re going to use this blog for is providing commentary and opinions on the constantly changing election campaign. With the VP announcements and nominating conventions looming, I think this is as good a time as any to take stock of the campaign thus far.

For months now, the American people have been deluged with polls showing a modest but consistent Obama edge. The electorate’s priorities remained remarkably stable, with a economic fears giving Democrats an invaluable advantage over their spendthrift colleagues on the other side of the aisle. With the dog days of summer upon us, the public’s attention turned to diversions like the Olympics, and in time many of us became complacent and content with the fragile lead our candidates enjoyed.

All of that changed as Russian tanks and aircraft commenced their barrage of neighboring Georgia. The often underestimated McCain campaign deftly seized on this opportunity to showcase their candidate’s perceived knowledge of foreign policy. At the same time, ads criticizing Obama for his celebrity-like following blared out of televisions nationwide. The conservative puppet Jerome Corsi issued another inaccurate and slanderous expose of Obama’s past, which promptly skyrocketed to bestseller status. Where was the Obama campaign’s political mastery during all of this? On vacation in Hawaii.

The last straw perhaps was Pastor Rick Warren’s faith forum at the Saddleback Megachurch, where Obama, fresh off the beach, appeared overly nuanced and unable to answer Warren’s questions with the same pointedness that characterized McCain’s replies. Today polls show all of these events have eroded Obama’s once dependable lead, making the race a virtual tie.

Political minds, like the ones who read this page, tend to fret over news like this. They see the decline in Obama’s numbers and immediately begin second-guessing their nominee’s abilities, skills, and even intelligence. Many wonder “how could the same Obama who executed arguably the largest upset in Democratic primary history now be tied with a delusional, trigger happy, out of touch conservative sellout?” For those of you out there who share these worries, I want you to remember a few things.

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