Down to its final days, the race for New Jersey Governor has become far more dynamic than almost anyone expected. With unpopular Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine facing off against Chris Christie, a law-and-order Republican claiming to have the guts to shake things up in Trenton, the outcome seemed a foregone conclusion as recently as August. After over a decade of marginalization, it seemed that this would finally be the year Republicans would take back the Governor’s mansion.

Many observers, myself included, warned our conservative brethren of overconfidence, reminding them that Republicans typically look competitive in summer polling only to suddenly lose their luster with New Jersey’s voters around Labor Day. Indeed, it seems that this prediction has yet again come to pass.

Christie’s collapse, though particularly breathtaking this year, is nothing new. Neither is Corzine’s stagnant support, a reflection of his profound unpopularity. What is new, especially by Garden State standards, is that yellow regression line traversing the low double digits. That, my friends, is Chris Daggett.

Daggett, an independent candidate who served as a popular Republican governor’s environment secretary, has proven his bipartisan bona fides with endorsements from the Sierra Club and the Newark Star-Ledger, New Jersey’s largest newspaper. Once considered irrelevant, Daggett’s rapid rise has forced both campaigns to acknowledge his effect on the race.

Christie appears terrified of Daggett’s rising star, as poll after poll has shown his numbers suffering as moderates begin to view Daggett as a possible winner and Christie as an unqualified partisan. His party’s ads have tried to liberalize Daggett by calling him “like Corzine, only worse.” This absurd characterization seems destined to push Christie’s numbers lower as more and more of his moderate backers begin hopping aboard the Daggett Express.

Corzine, for his part, has avoided criticizing Daggett, apparently believing that the enemy of his enemy is his friend. A vote for Daggett, while not a vote for Corzine, is definitely helping split the anti-incumbent voting bloc and could help the Governor win a second term with as low as 40% of the vote.

I voted for Corzine in this race, but I can’t help but admire Chris Daggett. A strong third-party candidate is unheard of in the Garden State, where high media costs typically price out all but the most well-funded (party-supported) candidates. His status as a strong contender in this year’s election has definitely shaken things up, and his nuanced policy positions have influenced the discourse of this campaign for the better.

Tags: 2009 Elections, Christie, Corzine, Daggett, New Jersey

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