Last November, moments before then-Senator Barack Obama broke the ceiling of 270 electoral votes to clinch the presidency, major news networks had announced that Virginia had moved into the Democratic column for the first time since LBJ defeated Goldwater in 1964, sending shockwaves through the party. Many of us believed that Obama’s revolutionary candidacy had brought about a new, unbreakable majority, best exemplified by an impressive seven-point victory in the Old Dominion.

But for most Democrats, last November seems like a decade ago. The Virginia Governor’s race, seen by many pundits as a referendum on President Obama’s increasingly unpopular domestic policies, has taken a drastic turn for the worse. Moderate Democrat State Sen. Creigh Deeds, ahead early in the race, now trails his Republican opponent Bob McDonnell by 8.8 points according to the RealClearPolitics average.

Running in the mold of his Democratic predecessors: current Virginia Governor and DNC Chair Tim Kaine, and Virginia’s current junior Senator Mark Warner, who succeeded in making Virginia a haven for tech-industry jobs, Deeds has failed to inspire any sort of significant ground effort to close the polling gap. He has only made things worse on himself by waffling on post-debate questions of a tax increase, and running an increasingly negative campaign (according to a majority of Virginians in the Washington Post’s October 8th poll).

But his lack of success is more of our fault than anything. Certainly political gravity is working against Deeds, as two successive terms of Democratic control always breed calls for change, even if the current administration is politically popular. But Deeds’ lack of volunteer enthusiasm has been significantly detrimental. Certainly a presidential campaign is far more exciting than a Governor’s race, and as aforementioned, Deeds perhaps is not a candidate to be overwhelmingly excited about. But his candidacy would be significantly bolstered if he could get even half of the volunteership of Barack Obama.

The hardest pill to swallow here is that Deeds can beat McDonnell. Four years ago, he lost the attorney general’s race to McDonnell by a fraction of a percentage point. Certainly Obama’s increasingly unpopular policies have hindered Deeds, but it hasn’t been the prevailing factor.

With Obama’s seven-point Virginia victory last November, we Democrats imagined Virginia being a party bastion for years to come. Now that dream is withering away. Ultimately, nothing is the matter with Virginia. Our collective complacency since the general election campaign is what is threatening a significant string of defeats for our party next month and in 2010, as even Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid trails Republican opponents in early polling by nearly double digits. We know how to effectively organize, network and win difficult campaigns. We’ve done it before and it will happen again. But not without a serious redoubling of our efforts in Virginia and beyond.

Tags: Deeds, Virginia

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