Jon Corzine- New Jersey’s Comeback Kid?
August 19th, 2009 by Matt IngogliaOver the past few months, I’m sure you’ve endured your fair dose of Republican salivation over deep blue New Jersey’s uncharacteristically close gubernatorial election. I’m sure you’ve heard people who have insisted that Gov. Jon Corzine’s unremarkable first term will cost him a second one, that GOP challenger Chris Christie will milk the recent corruption scandal to shore up his corruption credentials, and that Corzine’s millions won’t be enough to quash the mounting discontent in the Garden State. Indeed, Christie seems to be enjoying a comfortable leadin most reputable polls. But are all signs portending a Republican win, or will Jonny find a way to pull it out? I wholeheartedly believe that Corzine will secure another four years in Trenton, and I base that on three factors: the demographic nature of the state, Corzine’s improving strategy, and Christie’s mounting problems.
1. There was a time not too long ago when New Jersey politics was dominated by affluent yuppies who eagerly pulled the lever for Republican candidates. That time has long since passed, with the most densely populated state now a veritable melting pot of pretty much every ethnicity under the sun. This combined with high graduation rates (a known indicator of progressive voting behavior) has helped the Democrats build a 14-point registration advantage. This in turn has translated into wide victories for Clinton, Gore, Kerry and and Obama, and ensured that both Senate seats stay in Democratic hands.
The nice thing about New Jersey if you’re a Democrat is that you usually have to do very little to win; usually carrying the three or four most populous counties is enough to ensure a win. Republicans, by contrast, have to not only turn out huge numbers in friendly South Jersey, but also keep it reasonably close in the more moderate North and Central regions of the state, which is difficult to say the least. In short, all Corzine needs to do is focus on his base, while Christie must marshall nearly all Republicans to his side (harder than it sounds when you’re a hardline conservative) AND keep it competitive with indies and weak Democrats. Once Corzine’s base starts paying attention, you’ll see Christie’s numbers drop faster than a dead body in the Meadowlands.
2. Corzine definitely faltered early in the campaign; despite dropping massive ad buys in the NYC and Philly media markets (doable when you have $400 mil), the polls for the most part didn’t move one iota. However, it’s now clear that Jonny has switched up the strategy a bit. By simultaneously tying himself to a still popular president and calling Christie out on his well-hidden conservatism, he has successfully positioned himself as the ONLY choice and is beginning to reinvigorate his disenchanted base (this includes me). I look forward to seeing Corzine forcing Christie to own up to the Republicans’ core tenets; once people know that he believes in legalizing armor-piercing bullets and forcing women into back-alley abortions, he’ll be cooked faster than Taylor ham at the diner.
3. Christie’s bunch, for their part, have done fairly well with their strategy of saying as little as possible and exploiting the recent corruption scandal to their advantage. On the surface, Christie seems like a great law-and-order guy who won’t hesitate to lock up crooked politicos. That worked for a while, but the edge is definitely dulling after revelations this week that Christie discussed his potential gubernatorial run with Karl Rove while STILL serving as U.S. Attorney (a potential violation of the Hatch Act) and also failed to report a $46,000 loan to an assistant U.S. Attorney. Kind of puts a dent in the Mr. Clean image, doesn’t it? And while it’s true that New Jersey doesn’t necessarily care if our politicians are corrupt, we do care when they are flagrantly hypocritical.
So, terrified fellow Democrats, this is why you have nothing to fear. Corzine didn’t get to be a multi-millionaire or governor by being an idiot and surrounding himself with morons. Yes, the polls are scary, but as any politico worth his or her salt knows, New Jersey Democrats always close the gap in September. Republicans are always deluded that THIS TIME it’ll be different, and THIS TIME they’ll manage to trick the liberals and moderates with a snake-oil salesman like Christie, but I say “fuhgeddaboudit” to that.
Tags: 2009 Elections, Christie, Corzine, New Jersey
August 20th, 2009 at 11:23 am
Having lived in New Jersey for eighteen years, I have to say that Corzine is in much more trouble than most Democratic candidates. Voters blame Corzine for the economic mess we’re in, which is completely unjustified. Corzine’s been stressing the fact that he was the first governor to develop a recovery plan, and he’s also tied himself to the federal stimulus package. But many voters are still in the “throw-out-the-incumbent” camp.
That being said, I still think that he will win. Chris Christie has long ties to the Bush Administration, having been hand-picked by Karl Rove and installed in the USA’s office in 2002. As voters become more and more familiar with Christie, they like him less. The fact that he’s under investigation for abusing his authority as USA–including comments only yesterday about “having” numerous Assistant USAs that are ready to serve in his administration–has seriously tarnished his image, and many Jersey voters are afraid to even identify with the Republican Party. While this is winnable, it’ll all come down to GOTV and turnout, so we still need to put significant effort in to win.
The bigger trick is Virginia. We can’t afford to lose either, but it sure looks like Corzine has an easier path to winning than Deeds.
August 20th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Brian,
Thanks for joining The Blue Line! I enjoyed your comments.
Virignia will be difficult, but I think in terms of political importance New Jersey will be a much more painful one to lose. A lot of people look at Virginia as a decidedly swing state (which it is) and thus can accept a Republican win there fairly easily. After all, the Democrats have been on a hot streak since Kaine in ‘05, so a McDonnell win could at least be spun as an understandable regression to the mean.
New Jersey on the other hand is far more critical to keep blue. A loss here cannot be spun as anything more than the Democrats losing ground. As someone from New Jersey, I know people don’t see this as a referendum on Obama, but that’ll be the media narrative if Christie wins. Here’s hoping I never get proven right.
August 20th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
Glad to be here, Matt!
Anything short of winning both Virginia and New Jersey will be spun as disapproval of Obama’s policies. You know Fox, which is still unfortunately seen as a legitimate news network. Only decisive victories in both states will discredit this theory. However, I don’t expect us to decisively win in Virginia, so the media battle is already lost.
Winning New Jersey is important in more respects than the simple news networks. Take Arizona for example. The Democrats had a really good governor making a lot of progress in Janet Napolitano. But as soon as she was gone, the governorship fell to Jan Brewer, a Republican. Now, we have massive cuts in health care and education, and all of Napolitano’s progress is being undone. This is what would happen with a Governor Christie. All of Corzine’s work in education, health care, and human services would be undone by a Republican eager to slash taxes, as well as government programs. With New Jersey having just repealed the death penalty and being on the cusp of marriage equality, we can’t afford to fall into the Arizona model.
September 10th, 2010 at 4:41 pm
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