No Way, No How, No Avoiding Debates
September 25th, 2008 by Matt IngogliaI was tempted to avoid writing a post on this whole McCain won’t debate nonsense and just hoping everything would blow over today, but as evidenced by the “BREAKDOWN” lede on Drudge Report, clearly this bailout business will not be resolved in time for tomorrow night’s debate. This puts McCain in a considerable bind; worse yet one of his own construction. Basically, the only 2 variables are whether or not a deal is reached and how McCain responds with respect to the debate. Let’s examine some of the possible scenarios that may unfold in the next 24 hours (that is, between now and the scheduled beginning of the debate:
Scenario 1 works to McCain’s advantage. Paulson and Bernanke burn the midnight oil, Boehner wrangles up enough support on his side by guilt-tripping his party into helping their hapless nominee, and against all odds we have a bailout deal that is amenable to everyone’s concerns. I don’t have to point out how ridiculously unlikely this is, but my point is that McCain would be able to both claim credit for the resolution and arrive at the debate fresh off a “victory”. For those who don’t know how the Senate works (namely casual voters) they may in fact see McCain in a favorable light. Obama, by comparison, would look merely compliant with McCain’s action and thus not get as much of the credit. Again, this has about as much chance of occurring as Fox bringing back “That 80s Show”.
Scenario 2 is a little more complicated and more likely to occur. A deal is not reached, and McCain is faced with the difficult desicion of whether or not to head to Ole Miss for the debate anyway. Depending on how McCain plays this, it could potentially work to his advantage in a really convoluted way. If he emerges from the failed negotiatons frustrated and angry with his own party, he may get the support of some independents for taking issue with his own party. Heading down to the debate, McCain gets several hours of talking heads trumpeting “I told you he was a maverick”. Free to talk foreign policy and back in the groove, he gives an admirable performance and brings the race again to a draw. This is, of course, not likely to work the way McCain might want it, since such a well-choreographed damage control response is extremely difficult, especially with only a few hours to do it.
Scenario 3 is in my opinion much more likely to occur than the preceding possibilities. The deal falls through, and again we find McCain having to decide whether or not to head to Oxford. Having effectively boxed himself in, he chooses not to go to the debate. With camera crew in place and millions of eyes (more than usual thanks to McCain drawing all this attention) fixed on that stage, Obama is treated to a night of uninterrupted dialogue with the American people and free to go after McCain, who is of course unable to defend himself. Polls surge after this rare occasion, and McCain laments taking a losing gamble. Voters are reminded of why they liked Obama; his calm steady demeanor clearly preferable to the reckless ineffectualism that McCain has just exposed to an attentive and concerned audience. Pack it in, Johnny.
Scenario 4 is more mixed in terms of who benefits and entirely dependent on how Obama conducts himself. Again, no bailout deal is reached, but this time McCain decides to go to the debate anyway so as not to give Obama a one-on-one with America. Obama can either attack him for hypocrisy and injecting politics into a delicate process, or he can choose to stay above the fray and save those attacks for the economic debate. Personally I think it’s in his interest to stick to foreign policy if McCain shows up, since in all likelihood he’ll be thrown off his game (having broken his word) and thus beatable on his supposed strength. Americans already see Obama as calm and collected; they’ll like him even more if he avoids the easy attacks and takes McCain’s strong points head on, exposing them for the lies that they are.
So there you have it, 4 possible ways this whole thing could unfold. Only 1 will clearly work to McCain’s advantage, while the rest are either mixed bags or eminently helpful to Obama. Personally I hope for either Scenario 3 or 4 (only because they’d be the most exciting) but who knows what could happen. In fact, by the time most people read this, chances are we’ll know what’s going down. I hate to sound like McCain, but does anyone feel like making bets on this one?