Right and Ready on Day 1: The Case for Hillary Clinton
August 21st, 2008 by Matt IngogliaUp until now, the prevailing contention among politicos and talking heads was that Obama’s running mate should be a “safe” pick: one who wouldn’t alienate anybody and assuage some Democrats’ fears regarding Obama’s supposed inexperience. But with the characteristics of this presidential campaign clearly changing, and the once-comfortable Obama lead transforming into a dead heat, such an argument no longer holds water. It’s increasingly clear that the McCain campaign can only win by relentlessly barraging Obama with attack ads, questioning his experience and painting him as too unknown to be trusted with the presidency. Against this backdrop, Obama can neutralize this claims and rebound in the polls by tapping the tenacious and eminently capable Hillary Clinton for the running mate spot.
Electorally, it’s hard to find a scenario in which her presence on the ticket would work to Obama’s detriment. A quick look at current polling data shows Obama has a solid hold on most of the states John Kerry won, with the possible exception of New Hampshire. To me this indicates that Obama needs to only pick off one or two states to win the election, the most likely ones being places like Ohio and Florida. Who better to help him win those states than the candidate who carried them in the primaries? At a time when about a quarter of Clinton voters say they’ll back McCain in November, this move could prove decisive in swinging Ohio Obama’s way, effectively guaranteeing a victory.
An Obama/Clinton ticket would instantly unite Democrats and give the ticket serious campaign muscle.Say what you will about McCain, but it’s clear the negative ads and the Warren forum appearance have solidified the Republican base and given an audience for McCain’s ridiculous but powerful attack ads. Knowing Obama’s hesitance to fight back, Clinton would prove an indispensable attack-dog. After all, it’s clear McCain has adopted a harsher version of the Clinton primary strategy, so who better to refute it than her? In the process, she would whip Democrats into a frenzy, reminding them that this race is not in the bag and that every ounce of support is critical to a victory. Not to mention the fact that the PUMAs might finally shut up.
Any Republican benefit from an Obama/Clinton ticket would be minimal at best: As I said before, McCain’s already got his base so it’s unlikely Clinton will pull any more Republicans to his side. It might net him some campaign cash, but after he accepts the nomination and the public funding that comes with it, supporters won’t be able to contribute anyway! And the more they whine about how evil the Clintons supposedly are, the more motivated her supporters will become. Any increased turnout among Rush Limbaugh types would probably be negated by the droves of Hillary fans heading to the polls. Always remember, Republicans hate Hillary and Bill because for all their faults, they’ve never been able to beat them.
It’s clear that the McCain narrative of Obama as a nice but untrustworthy politico has begun to gel in the minds of many American voters. No doubt a selection of Hillary Clinton might reinforce that for some, but you could argue those folks weren’t going to vote Democrat anyway. If anything, I think the majority of voters would be impressed by Obama’s stunning admission that he can’t win this thing without her; such an unabashedly magnanimous move would electrify the party, captivate the media, and guarantee a fantastic election night for Democrats.
Throughout his career and campaign, Obama’s shown himself to be an emotional but ultimately rational and realistic thinker. If he thinks he needs an experienced hand to bring this home for him, he can do no better than the Junior Senator from New York. Sure, there are older Washington creatures he could select (Biden and Nunn come to mind), but a move like that could undercut his change message and reinforce the impression that he’s shallow and arrogant. Picking Clinton tears all those beliefs to shreds. We’ll know what he does soon enough, but I think the growing press speculation and lack of an announcement thus far suggests HRC might just be our next VP.
Tags: Hillary Clinton, McCain, Obama, Veepstakes
August 21st, 2008 at 4:41 pm
I agree with everything you wrote. He needs to pick her, especially now that the polls are even. All of this stuff about how she’ll be difficult to govern with doesn’t matter if he doesn’t even get in the White House.
August 22nd, 2008 at 11:22 pm
Hillary is the absolute wrong choice for Veep. She doesn’t control anyone’s votes except for a gaggle of robotic yentas that won’t vote for Obama no matter what (because he’s a man) while her presence will energize the Hillary-hating rightwingers (who are Legion). Her husband’s bizarre behavior is another piece of baggage Obama can do without. Stick with a Kaine or Bayh (Biden still carries the old plagerism knock which will be “new” to people who don’t remember it and echo-chambered by talk radio).
August 23rd, 2008 at 2:35 am
She doesn’t control any voters, she’s just very influential with 18 million of them. And regardless of what you think of her supporters, their vote is equal to your vote, so in the eyes of democracy, you’re both equal, and for Obama, their support means exactly as much as yours.
August 23rd, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Picking Biden runs counter to everything Obama supporters told us about him. Remember when he was going to take public financing? Remember when he was going to fillabuster the Eavesdropping Bill? Remember when he couldn’t pick Cinton becuse she was too much a Washington insider? This guy isn’t anything he said he is. Obama is rapidly becoming your standard pol. Biden is, perhaps, the biggest Washington insider of the lot and picking him just reconfirms my belief that this ticket has room for only one historical figure and thats Obama. Sorry, ladies but you’ll just have to get back in line. Oh, and lets take a second and think about the whole line of attack on McCain’s wealth. Bad move! Now we’re going to have to listen to all the right wing attack dogs drag up the money the Kennedys and Kerrys have. Not to mention that Bill Gates is the single largest contributor to the Democratic party. And, what about George Soros? I’m a true blue liberal democrat and I know being rich ain’t a sin. Being a doddering old fool who can’t remember his address or addresses is. But, having money is what we all want. It would benefit Obama if he could create an economy where we all became Cindy McCains or better yet, Theresa Kerrys.
August 23rd, 2008 at 8:58 pm
First off, Obama never claimed he was a “true blue liberal democrat”; in fact, he’s on the record over and over again imploring voters and politicians to embrace consensus-based decision making. That doesn’t excuse the public financing decision, but I believe his reversal was more than justified by the threat posed by the RNC and largely pro-McCain 527s. If you’re willing to forgive Hillary Clinton’s Iraq vote based on the dynamics of war, you should be able to do the same with Obama’s decision, which was based on changing circumstances just like hers.
Furthermore, the “change vs. experience” debate is a lot less black and white than people realize. As Biden exemplifies, just because you’ve been in Washington for 35 years doesn’t mean you are an “insider”. I don’t think anyone who commutes home by train every day is out of touch with average Americans. Basically, what I’m saying is examples abound of experienced politicians who’ve managed to stay true to their principles. Ted Kennedy, Dennis Kucinich, and Russ Feingold come to mind, in addition to Biden.
It’ll be interesting to see where the “McCain is a clueless rich man” argument goes. The Biden selection guarantees we’ll be hearing more about it, and thanks to Biden’s background he can’t be accused of hypocrisy by bringing it up. It’s not in Obama’s interest to criticize McCain’s wealth, but it is in his interest to use it as part of the greater narrative that McCain doesn’t understand the economic needs of working Americans. By making the line “if he can’t count his houses, how can you count on him?” Obama can play up doubts about McCain while not looking petty and critical of the wealthy people many working-class voters admire.